USD tanking against Thai baht.

[urleft]

I also believe the Thai rice market is going to crash, the Thai GVT can only prop it up so long, and Thailand is losing its international rice market share.  Could be tough times ahead for the average Thai. 

Well I don't think the crash will come this year.  However, Thailand needs us to keep drinking as that lastest alcohol tax is what is sustaining the Thai rice market. 

[urleft]

Wooo, continues to be good for me (I hope):


Baht below 32 amid protests

 http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Baht-below-32-amid-protests-30220724.html

The Nation November 27, 2013 3:18 pm

The Thai baht has weakened below 32 per US dollar on Wednesday amid protests in Bangkok.

 At the open, it was 32.08 per dollar, weakening by 0.25 per cent from yesterday and 3.05 per cent from the end of October.

 It also weakened 0.34 per cent and 0.22 per cent against the euro and Japanese yen.

 The currency is now traded at a two-month low, as the Finance Ministry could not raise as much as expected from bond sale. Yesterday, the ministry sold only Bt37 billion of government-backed bonds.

 According to the Public Debt Management Office, the bonds were also sold at a yield that was higher than market rates.

 The baht yesterday fell to 32.110 per dollar, the weakest level since September 11. It managed to climb above the $/Bt32 level at the close. The Finance Ministry has been occupied by anti-government protesters since Monday.

[nookiebear]

The GBP is at its highest level in almost 4 years

[urleft]

WOW!!!!!!!

Superrich, 32.55 to $1.   Wooo woooo   Good time to consider transferring money.   

All Thai banks over 32 for denominations over $50.   

Check it out:  http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

[urleft]

Outflows could weaken baht to 34 per greenback next quarter: KBank   

 

SUCHEERA PINIJPARAKARN
 THE NATION December 26, 2013 1:00 am

THE BAHT COULD depreciate to 34 against the US dollar next quarter because funds are moving out of emerging markets to developed economies, according to Kasikornbank.

 "The baht's movement in 2014 is hard to predict, but when fund flows are changing from emerging markets to developed markets, one thing that will happen is that the cost of US dollar funds will increase," Thiti Tantikulanan, head of capital markets business at KBank, said yesterday.

 Excluding the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, the baht and yen depreciated the most at 2.8 per cent a month ago, followed by the ringgit at 2.3 per cent and the Singapore dollar at 1.3 per cent.

 The baht was driven to 33 by the uncertainty in the home market, especially the political unrest.

 That was faster than the market expected. KBank had expected the baht to hit 33 by the end of next year.

 The baht was at 34 in September 2009. Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Pongpen Ruengvirayudh said the baht-dollar exchange rate next month was expected to be volatile because of the political instability. Foreign-capital inflows are tapering off as investors wait on the sidelines to see what develops politically. The baht is still weakening from the continuing outflows, but less capital is leaving, partly because of the New Year season.

 The baht's movement next year will dependent mainly on the domestic situation, Pongpen said.

 The unclear political picture must be closely tracked because this will greatly influence where the baht is heading next month, she added.

 However, Thiti of KBank said liquidity in the local market was not a problem despite the capital outflows, as foreign holdings in Thai bonds have stayed steady at Bt700 billion, even thought the 10-year yield here was not as attractive as the corresponding US yield. Foreign holdings in Thai bonds surged to Bt700 billion this year from Bt70 billion in early 2011.

 "Thailand in one of the investment-index markets for foreign investors. They might prefer their investment meeting the benchmark rather than getting an absolute return, while Thai bond holdings by foreigners are low at only 11-12 per cent," he said.

 The market should closely track the economic figures of the United States and that country's tapering of its quantitative easing programme in the next two months. If US economic figures improve, its Federal Reserve might taper its bond buying more than it said it would, and the tapering might happen quicker than expected.

 The US central bank early this month said it would reduce its US$85-billion-a-month bond purchases by $10 billion starting in January.

 The baht might appreciate if US economic figures do not show improvement, such as the unemployment rate.

 Thai corporations are planning to issue bonds even though their cost of funds is likely to rise. New bond issues next year are expected to total Bt350 billion, Thiti said.

 The high cost of the dollar is also an issue for the Fed because the recovery in the US economy is not guaranteed to be strong.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Outflows-could-weaken-baht-to-34-per-greenback-nex-30222938.html

[nookiebear]

The GBP IS NEARLY UP TO 54!

[urleft]

Well the USD peaked at just over 33 to $1 several weeks ago.  It seems to be in the slide mode.  However it is still well above 32 to $1 which was a very good breakthrough, current rate are just under 32.5 to $1. 

[DeputyDavid]

Time to make a transfer....

[urleft]

Time to make a transfer....

Wish I at least had a SWAG (scientific Wild Assed Guess), but between the Obama screwing up the US Economy and the Thailand Rice Subsity fiasco, I am really unsure of where the USD will go. 

[F1ART]

I know where the USD will end up!
With the wife! 

[urleft]

Well the rate has really slid, yesterday super rich was at 32.15 to $1.   However, the USD seems on a rebound. 

This may be a factor:   



GSB bank chief admits unusual cash withdrawals today

inBusiness|February 17, 2014(699 views)

Government Savings Bank (GSB) director Worawit Chailimpamontri admitted of unusual cash withdrawals by customers today after its announcement of interbank loan extension to the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC).


He said he was informed of unusual withdrawals of cash from all bank branches today and was believed to come from the loan extension.
But he said that the bank has tried to explain to misunderstood customers that the loan it provided to BAAC was not to support the rice pledging scheme, and the bank would never involve directly in the rice pledging scheme.
 
He made clear that the latest loan extension through interbank channel was a normal practice which it had used over a decade and never had a problem.
 
He said that the extension to BAAC is a short-term loan not exceeding 30 days, while reaffirming that the 5 billion baht loan was to strengthen the BAAC’s liquidity same as to other banks.
 
However, he said that the extension could be revised if there is a bank rush to withdraw money from the bank, adding the bank could still handle the situation while the rush would be short-lived or just 1-2 days. 
http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/gsb-bank-chief-admits-unusual-cash-withdrawals-today/
 
Current rate 32.37 to $1. 
 

 

[nookiebear]

The GBP is still coming back!

[urleft]

Good news for most of us, except those being paid in Baht (e.g., teachers). 

Unfortunately a follow on to the GVT issue are riots with 4 killed.  Not the stimulas I had expected (wished for) to plunge the Baht.  However, it seems to support my "sky is falling" projection on the rice subsity:   

Four killed in Thai clashes; PM to face charges over rice scheme
By Athit Perawongmetha and Damir Sagolj

(Reuters) - Gun battles erupted between Thai police and anti-government protesters in Bangkok on Tuesday and four people were killed and dozens wounded as authorities made their most determined effort yet to clear demonstrators from the streets.

In a day of tangled developments in Thailand's long-running political crisis, the country's anti-corruption body announced it was filing charges against Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra relating to a rice subsidy scheme that has fuelled middle-class opposition to her government.

The troubled rice scheme, already near collapse, suffered another blow when the Government Savings Bank (GSB) said it was scrapping a loan to a state farm bank that could have been used to prop the scheme up in the face of a revolt by depositors.

 The clashes were some of most intense between protesters and security forces since the campaign to unseat Yingluck began in November. The military, which has said it would intervene if police are unable to control security in the capital, has not publicly commented on the violence.

The protests are the latest installment of an eight-year political battle broadly pitting the Bangkok middle class and royalist establishment against the poorer, mostly rural supporters of Yingluck and her billionaire brother, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/18/us-thailand-protest-idUSBREA1H02220140218

 

[gotlost]

Xe 32.55  and 54.32

[urleft]

Just checking the exchange rate, it is now under 30, in some cases under 29. 


http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Not sure why but the Day to Day exchange website is not working.  Too bad as it provided a great overview of the best exchange rates.   

While topping at 33 to $1 last month, for a weeks it hovered at 32.5 to $1.   Then it rate dropped to almost 32 to $1.  Looks like it is inching up again, just checked Super Rich which has the top rate of 32.37 to $1 

http://superrichthai.com/exchange.aspx

Anyone have a link that compared with day to day?