Thai Baht currency NEWS

[Admin]

Thai Baht likely to weaken, SET to gain 
Bangkok Post: 18 Apr 2009

SET to gain; Baht likely to weaken
Bangkok Post SATURDAY April 18, 2009 12:41 PM

The Thai stock market would likely increase next week after the political tension appeared to ease after the long Songkran holiday, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre's latest forecast.

The think tank expected the movements of foreign stock markets would also support the Thai bourse in the following week.

However, the bourse may move up in a narrow range, depending on the investors' confidence in the political situation, adding that the global economic environment remains fragile.

The support level should be between 449 and 442 points, while the resistance level should range from 467 and 474 points.

The centre also predicted that the Thai baht would weaken next week after the currency was downgraded by foreign institutions.

The short-term interest rates would move around 1.25 per cent, causing the value of baht to be approximately 35.30 to 35.60 baht per US dollar.

However, its movement would also depend on the values of other neighbouring currencies and the economic figures to be released by the United States next week.

[Admin]

Baht exchange rate may stay volatile 
Bangkok Post: 14 May 2009
Baht rate may stay volatile for years

Bankers wary despite some recovery signs

The baht is likely to remain volatile for several years while the global economy recovers, according to local bankers. Over recent weeks, the baht has gained against the greenback, partly spurred by inflows into the local stock market. The baht yesterday traded at 34.48/53 to the US dollar, up from 34.54/56 on Tuesday.

Other regional currencies have also gained ground as investors shift away from US treasuries in favour of emerging market assets in anticipation that the worst of the global recession has passed.But Prasarn Trairatvorakul, the president of Kasikornbank, cautioned that closer monitoring of economic trends is needed before a genuine recovery can be announced.

While promising signs of growth have been seen, they are limited to specific areas and business sectors, he said.

Western financial institutions remain weak and further US government stimulus measures are likely, potentially spurring further fluctuations in the dollar and global currencies, he added.

He played down concerns that a stronger baht would significantly hurt Thai exporters, as any impact would be more than offset by a recovery in the global economy.

A higher foreign-exchange risk for businesses would also be compensated for by a pickup in global and domestic demand, he said.

Chartsiri Sophonpanich, the president of Bangkok Bank, agreed that Thai exports would benefit from a recovery in the global economy.

But it is premature to declare an end to the crisis, he said.

In his view, continuous improvement over a longer period is needed before a real recovery can be declared.

For Bangkok Bank, the country's largest bank, one positive sign has been an increase in credit demand among companies.

Mr Chartsiri said that performance in the second quarter should also show an improvement on the previous quarter, thanks to the government's fiscal stimulus measures, although Bangkok Bank is maintaining its forecast of a 2% contraction for 2009.

[Admin]

Thai baht has a chance to fluctuate 
: 23 May 2009
Thai baht closes at 34.32-34.34 against the dollar
source: National News Bureau of Thailand

Thai local currency closed at 34.32-34.34 against the dollar, fluctuating in line with factors from internal and external markets.

Thai baht has a chance to fluctuate and external factors from foreign markets are expected to play a vital role to Thai baht currency value next week. Investors are advised to follow the credit rating investment from Standard & Poor’s, the world's foremost provider of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research and data.

Investors were also advised to keep an eye on whether or not the Bank of Thailand (BOT) would intervene in the stronger baht. As for other major foreign currencies, the Japanese Yen traded at 94.14-94.187 against the dollar, slightly weaker from the value at 93.90 against the dollar in the morning, and the Euro traded at 1.3947-1.3951 against the dollar.

Thai baht is expected to trade in the range of 34.25-34.50 against the dollar next week.

[Admin]

Strong baht, oil price rebound a concern: Thai Finance Minister 
Bangkok Post: 5 Jun 2009
Korn: Strong baht a concern

By: www.Bangkokpost.com 5/06/2009 at 08:47 PM


A strengthening baht due to problem-solving measures in the US and the rising price of crude will be new challenges for economic recovery in the near future, according to Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij.

The US dollar is likely to weaken in the near future as the Federal Reserve continues to inject cash into the economy to resolve credit constraints and offset declining demand in treasury bills from abroad, he said.

Crude oil prices rallied to $70 per barrel due to increased demand. Thailand would be affected as it is a major importer of oil, said Mr Korn.

"The Fed needs to keep injecting cash for a while. One positive from this action is that demand will be sustained. But it is unavoidable that it will lead to upward pressure on prices, and increased manufacturing will also affect oil prices,'' he said.

The government's 1.4-trillion-baht investment plan, mainly for small and medium-scale projects, should stimulate the economy for the medium term. Screened projects for investment are the ones ready for use, he said.

"We will use domestic liquidity to import raw materials. This will reduce pressure on the baht. The government's position is clear: when the private sector is not ready and there is plenty of liquidity, it will spend,'' said Mr Korn.

"Public debt will rise to 60% of gross domestic product over the next two years, which we think is acceptable.''
Speaking at an economic seminar, he said the government plans to embark on Southern Seaboard development to create a seaport and transport link between the eastern and western coast, as well as building a dual-track train network stretching from North to South and West to East, as long-term economic restructuring measures.

[TBWG]

Hi Bums

Sod's Law as soon as the £ - baht rate starts to improve (mostly due to $ depreciation) the UK gov't decides to go into self destruct mode and scupper our chances.

Brit's just can't win at the moment!

TBWG

[nookiebear]

Hi Bums

Sod's Law as soon as the £ - baht rate starts to improve (mostly due to $ depreciation) the UK gov't decides to go into self destruct mode and scupper our chances.

Brit's just can't win at the moment!

TBWG

Something similar happens every time the£ starts to gain a little in value.....Weds could get 55.46,Friday down to 53.87 for cash..........

[Khun Tony]

Your complaining, try the aussie dollar at 27 baht, I know which currency I'd rather have.  If my dollar worth was in pounds, I could retire today.

[nookiebear]

Your complaining, try the aussie dollar at 27 baht, I know which currency I'd rather have.  If my dollar worth was in pounds, I could retire today.

Tha Aussie Dollar hasn't lost nearly as much value as the GBP v THB

[Admin]

Bank of Thailand to manage Baht value 
Bangkok Post: 19 Jun 2009
source: www.BangkokPost.com

BoT to manage the baht, says FTI

Breakingnews By: BangkokPost.com Published: 19/06/2009 at 03:46 PM

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has promised to prevent the Thai currency being too strong against the country’s export competitors, Santi Vilassakdanont, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said on Friday afternoon.

He was speaking after a meeting with central bank officials called to discuss the economic situation and exchange points of view on monetary policy.

The private sector had earlier complained the BoT had failed to curb the value of the baht to a suitable level. In recent months the currency was stronger than its competitors by about 1 per cent, reducing the competitiveness of the export sector.

“The central bank has promised to ensure the baht value will not be too strong”, Mr Santi said.

The FTI had also asked the BoT provide assistance to small and medium manufacturers facing problems of liquidity shortage because banks were very cautious about making loans to the SMEs.

The central bank had said it would coordinate with state-owned banks to ease conditions on loan approvals, he said.

The BoT insisted that the financial sector now has a large liquidity surplus and banks were therefore capable of providing more loans, the FTI chairman said. The only problem was that SMEs seeking loans did not have the required collateral.

The central bank also recommended the private sector to come up with risk management measures on the foreign exchange rate.

[TBWG]

Hi Bums

Wot's the price of a liter of Diesel and B5 Diesel at the moment?


TBWG

[Admin]

Kasikorn: Thai baht getting stronger 
Bangkok Post: 6 Jul 2009
www.BangkokPost.com

KRC: Baht getting stronger


The Thai baht was the second most appreciated currency in Asia in the first half of 2009, the Kasikorn Research Centre reported on Monday.

The leading think-tank said the baht's value had strengthened against the US dollar by 2.3 per cent, while Indonesia's rupiah had appreciated by 6.4 per cent.

The recovering economy in China and other Asian countries, including Thailand, may cause the baht to follow other regional currencies and strengthen further.

A likely rebound in inflation is also possible at the end of this year, the KRC said.

The Thai currency could appreciate to 33.75 baht per US dollar, and may hit 33.00 baht in the fourth quarter, according to the forecast.

[nookiebear]

Hi Bums

Wot's the price of a liter of Diesel and B5 Diesel at the moment?


TBWG

I've just paid 23.66 for B5,I think diesel was 26.41..........

[Admin]

Maybe this is the place to say we have added a link for DAILY CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES link on the home-page.

Cheers. 

http://www.buriramexpats.com/

[Admin]

Strong Thai baht still in the pipeline 
The Nation: 6 Oct 2009
Treasury Outlook
By Nattawut Sachabudhawong
Siam Commercial Bank

Strong Baht Still in the Pipeline

Several weeks ago the baht finally broke through the critical level of 34.00 per dollar for the first time in months, but quickly fell back to 33.5 within two weeks. There are two main reasons for this movement.

First, as mentioned many times in previous issues, the baht has been too static against the dollar and some other curฌrencies. A less volatile currency benefits both exporters and importers, but being too static is not always good. Eventually the currency needs rebalancing, but that may hurt some exporters.

Second, the country is still recording huge money inflows via the current account balance, even though the economy itself is still struggling to get back on track.

Looking ahead, a much more challenging path for everyone with foreign exchange exposure in this market lies ahead. During the past month, many analysts became more bullish on emerging markets, including Asian countries. Some argued that while there were some encouraging signs of recovery in the developed countries, the real economic action was actually taking place elsewhere.

Emerging countries are set to dominate global economy activity in the years ahead as many developed countries are held back by their enormous debt. This situation is also influencing the currency market as it sets the course of capital flight in the world's financial markets.

We have been witnessing capital inflow into our region, including our country, for many months, which is one reason for the bullishness in emerging countries among investors.

The other reason is interest rate differentials, which will be a key driver next year. Recent FX normalisation reflects interest rate differentials as well as economic fundamentals. A zero rate monetary policy in the US is becoming an increasingly dominant driver of currencies, especially Asian currencies. With the Fed now expected to remain on hold throughout next year and even until 2011, there will be more capital outflow from dollar assets, and this will probably benefit all emerging curฌrencies, including those in Asia.

Asian currencies will likely become stronger than the current level, especially when Asian central banks start to raise rates independently from the Fed next year.

This situation also holds true for Thailand. We expect that by the end of next year the Bank of Thailand will raise its key interest rate by at least 50 basis points, and the economy will be back on track at pre-crisis levels.

With limited capital outflows, capฌital inflows (causing a current account surplus) will continue to put upward pressure on the baht. The baht is still under pressure against the dollar and is expected to appreciate further through 2010.

Nattawut Sachabudhawong is a senior financial economist in the treasury division of Siam Commercial Bank.

www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/10/06/business/business_30113825.php

[Admin]

Bank of Thailand curbs strong baht 
Bangkok Post: 8 Oct 2009
www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/156469/bot-curbs-baht-appreciation

BoT curbs baht's appreciation

The central bank had intervened in money market to curb the baht's appreciation, Suchada Kirakul, assistant governor at the Bank of Thailand (BoT), said on Thursday.

Mrs Suchada said the value of the baht was too strong when compared to the country’s economic fundamentals. She warned money traders to refrain from profit speculation from the baht's value as the BoT will keep a close watch on the currency's fluctuation.

The baht's strengthening was derived from continuing foreign direct investment inflow to the Stock Exchange of Thailand, the country’s substantial current account surplus and the weak US dollar.

In addition, gold traders had exported a large amount of gold as its price hit a record high on the world market. They had changed the received payment in US dollars into baht, increasing demand for the Thai currency, Mrs Suchada said.