Ballot and bloodshed could hinge on Thaksin's leadership decision

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Ballot and bloodshed could hinge on Thaksin's leadership decision
By Avudh Panananda
The Nation 2011-04-19

A miscalculation by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra may cause Thailand to plunge further into political turbulence following the early election.

Last week the Shinawatra clan held a meeting in Dubai and Thaksin was reportedly in favour of endorsing his younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra as Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate.

Sources close to the family said Thaksin had already made up his mind on the issue. However, his public statements indicated otherwise.

Initially, Thaksin said he would introduce the Pheu Thai candidate for premiership by this week to coincide with the unveiling of the party's campaign platforms and electoral candidates.

Later he modified his stand, saying he would finalise his decision after the dissolution of Parliament. Recently, he hinted that he might not even reveal his favourite for the position of prime minister before the result of the ballot is known.

Even though Thaksin has the discretion to decide when to say - or not to say - who should lead the next government, Pheu Thai will surely face an insurmountable handicap if its campaigning is shrouded in mystery on who he will appoint as prime minister if the party wins.

And the main opposition party's campaign prospects will see a change for the worse if Thaksin orders Pheu Thai to prop Yingluck up.

Presently the two rival parties, the Democrats and Pheu Thai, are a neck-and-neck in terms of popularity. Making a poor choice about who will be premier could be a catastrophe for Pheu Thai. The difference could be critical and turn the chance of a sound victory into a shattering defeat.

It is understandable that Thaksin may favour his sister Yingluck for the top post. Family friends say she absolutely adores her brother. For the past two years, she has proven to be an effective representative for her brother managing ties with Pheu Thai MPs.

As puppeteer, Thaksin should strive to find a trusted and agile puppet. But the puppeteer and his puppet should not forget that their show is staged for an audience and not for their own entertainment.

Thaksin still has about a month to review his decision. Yingluck is trustworthy with proven skills for running business and getting MPs to toe the line. But Thaksin should not overlook the fact that Yingluck is a wild card in regard to attracting popular votes.

In the event of a Pheu Thai victory, Yingluck would be Thaksin's excellent choice to lead the next government, to pave way for him to enjoy a triumphant return from life on the run as a political convict.

But the election has yet to start and the outcome is not a foregone conclusion.

In the history of elections around the world, voters tend not to cast ballots when key factors are unknown.

When the late prime minister Samak Sundaravej led People Power Party to victory in the 2007 election, he was a campaign magnet to attract popular votes in his own right.

Yingluck has no political credentials to follow in Samak's footsteps. The red shirts and Pheu Thai supporters will probably vote for individual candidates under the Pheu Thai banner. But will their popular ballots cast for the proportionate vote go to Yingluck?

Should Pheu Thai be defeated in popular votes, the chance of Yingluck forming the next government will disappear and Thaksin's prodding and planning will collapse like a house of cards. A major loss in popular votes would likely cause Pheu Thai to disintegrate.

Without Pheu Thai as his political base, Thaksin would be forced to lean toward the red-shirt movement. This would not bode well for the country.

The movement is tainted by questionable rhetoric on the monarchy. And if Thaksin resumes his close association with the red shirts, like in 2008 and 2009, it is possible there will be more riots and bloodshed on the streets of Bangkok.