Bank of Thailand optimistic on 2011

[Admin]

Bank of Thailand optimistic on 2011 
Bangkok Post: 31 Dec 2010
ECONOMY
BoT optimistic about 2011

The Bank of Thailand expects positive economic growth next year due to the improving world economy, while a rising interest rate is not expected to hamper the local business sector.

The expected election next year should increase consumption as liquidity rises during the election period, said Mathee Supapongse, senior director of the central bank's Domestic Economy Department.

Mr Mathee believes the US and European debt crises have been easing gradually and the Thai economy is now more reliant on Asia than the West, also a positive sign.

"Since China and Asean are still growing steadily, the Thai export sector should be expanding at the same pace," said Mr Mathee.

Discussing the rising trend of interest rates, he said it should not disrupt economic expansion, given the similar growth trend of loans.

He suggested the policy rate increase to 2% by the Monetary Policy Committee in early December was an adjustment to a normal level.

Inflationary pressure remains in line with that of other growing countries and is mostly due to food and fuel prices, but the central bank will closely monitor the situation, he added.

Economic growth for 2011 was earlier projected at 3-5%.

Domestic growth in November improved from a month earlier as the impact from flooding receded. The consumption index in November rose 4.1% year-on-year and 3.5% from a month earlier, driven by growth of vehicle sales, fuel usage and consumer products.

The private investment index grew by 15.5% year-on-year and 0.3% monthly, as exports rose 28.7% from a year before and tourism arrivals rose 10.2% with hotel occupancy gaining to 55% from 49% a year earlier.

On the supply side, capacity improved by 5.6% year-on-year driven by vehicle production.

However, farm sector capacity declined by 7.2% year-on-year because of the recent flooding but was up by 12% from a month earlier.

Full statistical tables: http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/EconomicConditions/Thai/Documents/TableENG_November2010.pdf


http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/213876/bot-optimistic-about-2011

[nookiebear]

2011 will be the year the Baht goes 'bang' again.........I HOPE

[garytaffy]

Here here Nookie.Had a nightmare last night woke up in a sweat dreamt that the exchange rate was 20 baht to £1........

[nookiebear]

Here here Nookie.Had a nightmare last night woke up in a sweat dreamt that the exchange rate was 20 baht to £1........

I don't want to put the 'fear of x' into you,,,,But I was here when it dropped to 29

[Admin]

Here here Nookie.Had a nightmare last night woke up in a sweat dreamt that the exchange rate was 20 baht to £1........

I don't want to put the 'fear of x' into you,,,,But I was here when it dropped to 29

...... just when you thought it can never go down.
I don't think its good for the Thai economy and tourism, that's for sure, considering the numbers of UK residents and tourists here.
I think the USD fell down pretty hard few years ago but since than it show some stability on the ~30 Baht/USD.

[nookiebear]

Here here Nookie.Had a nightmare last night woke up in a sweat dreamt that the exchange rate was 20 baht to £1........

I don't want to put the 'fear of x' into you,,,,But I was here when it dropped to 29

...... just when you thought it can never go down.
I don't think its good for the Thai economy and tourism, that's for sure, considering the numbers of UK residents and tourists here.
I think the USD fell down pretty hard few years ago but since than it show some stability on the ~30 Baht/USD.

BUT the Thais say the economy is booming & tourists are flocking in......

[Admin]

Thai economy in 2011 projected to grow at lowest level in Asia: World Bank
TNA 2011-01-13

BANGKOK, Jan 13 – Thailand’s economy in 2011 is projected to expand by only 3.2 per cent, the lowest level in Asia in the past five years, dropping from last year’s economy, which grew by 7.5 per cent, Frederico Gil Sander, World Bank economist in Bangkok said on Thursday.

According to the World Bank’s latest ‘Global Economic Prospects 2011,’ Mr Sander said that last year’s Thai economic growth marked the highest level in Asia but the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third and fourth quarters of 2010 gradually declined.

Meanwhile, the country’s tourism sector has not yet fully recovered due to the small number of tourist arrivals from US and Europe.

Owing to the economy in the last two quarters of 2010 and slow recovery of tourism industry, the World Bank forecast that the GDP in 2011 is unlikely to expand by 5 per cent in accordance with its potential growth rate, but will slow to 3.2 per cent, the lowest economic growth in Asian countries.

Mr Sander also said last year has seen the large and most volatile foreign capital flows. However, he expected that the US government will apply measures related to capital injection to boost its economy for gradual recovery. This will lead to a decline in foreign capital inflows in contrast with last year's surging capital flows and that will help stabilise currency exchange rates across Asia as well as for the Thai baht.

Regarding Thailand's political uncertainties persisting for years, the World Bank economist said the factor does not markedly impact on investor confidence. On the contrary, this year’s planned general election will likely encourage domestic consumption and the government’s ‘Pracha Wiwat’ (People’s Agenda) welfare scheme will stimulate domestic spending as well.

He also pointed out that a risk to Thai economy in 2011 is European debt crisis which remains unstable and fragile, adding that if the situation worsens, it will cause negative impact on Thailand’s economy.

Moreover, faster-than-expected high inflation rate should be concerned. If the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee raises the policy interest rate too quickly, it may cause a stagnation in domestic demand and later may affect the overall economy.

However, if the political situation is more stable or otherwise sends a positive signal, the World Bank may raise Thailand’s economic growth in 2012 to 4.2 per cent, Mr Sander explained.

In addition, the World Bank’s latest ‘Global Economic Prospects 2011' also predicted that China's economy, the biggest emerging economy, is to grow 8.7 per cent this year, followed by Laos at 7.5 per cent, Mongolia at 7 per cent and Vietnam 6.5 per cent. (MCOT online news)