Am I getting rich here?

[TBWG]

Hi Ray

What does it say in your crystal ball about Sterling?

TBWG

Hi to my good friend TBWG,

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but since you asked the question.................... The Daily Telegraph "money-man" Mr. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard made a very apt description the other day in which he described the pound as about to fall off the White Cliffs of Dover..............sorry............see the hyperlink below     

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/18/ccview118.xml

Hi Ray

Oh dear .... seems like another garage sale is called for   See post in motors section


TBWG

[Yellow Tree]

It is no secret that money will cycle up and down. During the 1960's a USD was getting about 25 THB. I think it was the early 1990s when it was 44-45 THB (after the Stock Market crashed).

I have found the best thing to do with exchange rates is to wait until you feel it is going to be your best opportunity for awhile and then transfer a large amount. The most important part of this strategy is to never look back if it does not work out. You may miss-out on a Baht or two, but generally if everything makes sense, then it will work out good (but probably not perfect).

My current strategy is something like this: I do not see the USD getting significantly stronger in the near future. I believe that PM Samak would like to see the Baht at around 35 THB/USD to help the slumping exports without giving the “farm away”. As long as Samak holds power I would expect to see the exchange around 35. If there is another Coup, then I would expect to see the exchange rate to go higher (because investor confidence is gotten so low), but I would also expect to see Inflation jump up significantly: so there would be no real gain. That is why I have already made my transfer and I am working hard to make my purchase soon. The only way I feel I could loose is if the THB went to 30 or even lower again; then the right call would be to transfer liquid-money back to the U.S.
 That is why the best thing to do is to stick to your decision, whatever it is, and feel good about it. Eventually everybody with some common sense will hit about even.

[RayBan]

It is no secret that money will cycle up and down. During the 1960's a USD was getting about 25 THB. I think it was the early 1990s when it was 44-45 THB (after the Stock Market crashed).

I have found the best thing to do with exchange rates is to wait until you feel it is going to be your best opportunity for awhile and then transfer a large amount. The most important part of this strategy is to never look back if it does not work out. You may miss-out on a Baht or two, but generally if everything makes sense, then it will work out good (but probably not perfect).

My current strategy is something like this: I do not see the USD getting significantly stronger in the near future. I believe that PM Samak would like to see the Baht at around 35 THB/USD to help the slumping exports without giving the “farm away”. As long as Samak holds power I would expect to see the exchange around 35. If there is another Coup, then I would expect to see the exchange rate to go higher (because investor confidence is gotten so low), but I would also expect to see Inflation jump up significantly: so there would be no real gain. That is why I have already made my transfer and I am working hard to make my purchase soon. The only way I feel I could loose is if the THB went to 30 or even lower again; then the right call would be to transfer liquid-money back to the U.S.
 That is why the best thing to do is to stick to your decision, whatever it is, and feel good about it. Eventually everybody with some common sense will hit about even.

Hi Yellow Tree,

I follow your thinking, but I have found that most of the guys who have already settled down in Buriram are either retired............or like me approaching retirement. Therefore plans have already been set in stone and suddenly for the goal=posts to be moved by unforeseen circumstances, like the oil prices for instance, well it can have serious repercussions on one's long term plans.

When someone like myself, who is preparing for retirement and has received his salary in $US for 25 years,, well it is not "You may miss-out on a Baht or two"...........$1 million US for instance is not an unusual retirement sum, but the difference between 35 and 45 baht to the $ is 10 million baht, not a sum to be frivilous with.

Also take into account the extremely weak dollar, which believe me will bounce right back in time..........."It is no secret that money will cycle up and down." .......................So don't be hasty, the dollar will continue to get stronger, the baht just will not survive the current climate..............that is my prediction and so hold on to your $'s for a little while longer, you will make more than a baht or two for sure, I see a 10 million baht profit on the horizon!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

[Yellow Tree]

Hi Ray Ban,

  I understand just where you are coming from and hopefully I will get exactly where you are speaking.

  You and I are actually in two different boats for now though:

  The timing of moving a large portion of the "nest-egg" is a really big decision and I think your advice on the US Dollar is spot-on.
  The amounts that I am transferring are around 1M THB and not 1M USD so the numbers are not so critical. Because I am taking the "grow as you go" plan I cannot always wait extended periods of time for a better exchange rate. We are developing a Rubber Tree/Farming operation in Buriram and I transfer money from time to time to have it on hand for expenses. I sent a small "chunk" at 34.0 THB because the potential opportunity to buy land at a good price arose (we are still waiting to see what happens). I knew the exchange was moving in a favorable direction (as you pointed out), but the land would not wait for a 40 THB day. Trust me, even loosing $1000 US hurts, but my advise was directed towards not letting exchange take away from a good plan or make a person loose sleep at night. I will try to be more specific about my situation in future posts because I can see how misunderstanding could happen.

  By the way: where do you thing the Baht will go in the next two years? Sara Palin has added an interesting vote of confidence towards fiscal responsibility in the US and the strengthening Dollar we are looking for.


 

[RayBan]

Hi Ray Ban,

  I understand just where you are coming from and hopefully I will get exactly where you are speaking.

  By the way: where do you thing the Baht will go in the next two years? Sara Palin has added an interesting vote of confidence towards fiscal responsibility in the US and the strengthening Dollar we are looking for.

Hi Yellow Tree,

Thank you for the positive reply, I was concerned that you may have been offended by mine, as you say...........we are all in different boats.

You specifically asked as to where I think the $ V Baht will go..................well from all my input I think it basically boils down to the Pesedential Elections in November. If M'Cain gets in, well I think it will be viewed as more of the same stuff and things will probably stay as they are, although with the Thai Government turmoil things can only get better in regards to the strengthening of the $ to Baht exchange rate............though this will be slow.

If Obama gets voted in..............I do not think that it is unrealistic that the $ to Baht rate will hit 45 .................so prepare to transfer on a one day notice!!!!!!!

You have to remember that the last Democrat Government in America was Bill Bill Clinton.................although he screwed up in proverbial terms, he was admired  and respected worldwide for his fiscal achievements......................stand by................my $US are on an immediate order of transfer to Thailand...    

[Yellow Tree]

I am concerned that printing 700B USD to address the "money problem" is going to send the USD exchage to THB down the tubes for a while. But not terribly worried.

IF the exchange goes to 28 (or so) I was thinking about moving some liquid assets back to the US to take advantage of the weak USD. Recovery may take five to seven years (the Great Depression took 10-years and a war), but the growth from the exchange (20%) should still beat the US or Thai market growth during that time.
 Any thoughts for or against?

 Contrary to what the President of Iran had to say; I do not believe the "American Empire" is at a collapse. Crooked Bankers and Politicians have made a smelly mess for sure, but they have done the same thing in America before (grant it not on this scale). As long as corrupt people go to jail I think America will be OK and possibly better in the long-run. Note: Enron executives went to jail and it stopped many cooperation from cooking their books; just not Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

[Admin]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/
Exchange rates >> 
Baht/$ 35.50/54 (Bid/Ask)
 

[Lourens]

Thai Baht May Fall 5.6% by Year-End on Growth Risk, UBS Says

By Shanthy Nambiar (Bloomberg.com)
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s baht may slide 5.6 percent by year’s end as the nation’s economy shrinks at the fastest pace in a decade, deterring global funds, UBS AG said.
The currency, which dropped 15 percent last year, the third- worst performance among Asia’s 10 most-active currencies against the U.S. dollar, will extend losses as government pump-priming fails to avert a 3 percent contraction, said Nizam Idris, Singapore-based currency strategist at UBS.Overseas investors sold $154 million more Thai shares than they bought since the start of 2009, according to Bloomberg data.
“We are right in the eye of the storm,” Nizam said in an interview today. “There isn’t much capital flows. Thailand is likely to see the economy slowing sharply this year. The baht will remain quite weak.”
Nizam predicts the baht, which traded at 34.95 per dollar as of 12:54 p.m. in Bangkok, will fall to 36 by the end of June and to 37 by the end of 2009, Nizam said. The median estimate of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News is for a year-end level of 36.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is boosting spending and waiving taxes to spur expansion. Six months of anti-government protests that culminated in a blockade of Bangkok’s airports in November sent business sentiment to a record low.
The economy may expand no more than 2 percent this year, the slowest pace since 1998, on sluggish exports and investment, according to the central bank.
Confidence Low
Political woes last year prevented the previous government from following through on promises to spend about $50 billion over four years on infrastructure projects and ease restrictions on foreign investment. Abhisit, elected by parliament on Dec. 15, replaced Somchai Wongsawat, the brother-in-law of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup.
Thailand’s lawmakers last week passed a 117 billion-baht ($3.3 billion) stimulus package proposed by Abhisit, which includes cash handouts to the elderly and free school supplies. That is in addition to 40 billion baht in tax breaks.
“The government is likely to be quite active in pump- priming the economy,” Nizam said. “Confidence may take some time to come back. We really need to see some stability, and the government’s ability to enact some of its policies.”
Losses in emerging markets and the global credit crunch also weighed on the baht, which declined 0.6 percent this year. The world’s largest financial firms announced more than $1 trillion of losses and credit-market writedowns since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Liquidity has dried up in emerging markets, particularly for currencies like the Thai baht,” Nizam said. “Maybe toward year-end we could see capital inflows into some of the Asian economies, but Thailand won’t be a top choice. That isn’t helping trading interest in the baht.”
Thailand’s current account is likely to be in deficit this year as overseas investment fails to offset slowing exports and higher government spending, Nizam said. A current account gap makes the baht less attractive to investors.

The Bank of Thailand has said it may continue easing monetary policy. It cut the one-day bond repurchase rate to 2 percent in two reductions totaling 1.75 percentage points since December.

[Admin]

Baht exchange rates facing Govt scrutiny 
Bangkok Post: 14/2/2009
ECONOMIC RECOVERY & COMPETITIVENESS
Baht value faces scrutiny
Cabinet ministers on Wednesday will consider whether current exchange rates are affecting Thailand's export competitiveness.

However, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij played down any conflicts or interference with the Bank of Thailand's handling of exchange-rate policy.

"We are not intending to reduce the governance of the central bank over exchange rates, but only to assess what impact rates are having on the export sector," he said yesterday.

The baht, which slipped yesterday to 35.12/16 from 35.02/09, has remained relatively stable this year even as other regional currencies have weakened.

The central bank has stated that its policy was to smooth volatility in the market, rather than intervene to try to push rates in any one direction.

But some business groups have argued for more forceful intervention in the markets to help boost the flagging export sector, which has dipped sharply in recent months due to the global economic crisis.

Meanwhile, Mr Korn welcomed comments by central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase that regulators could permit greater foreign participation in the Thai banking sector.

"I agree in principle. We opened up the banking sector to greater foreign shareholdings during the [1997] crisis, and it has helped lead to greater competition and efficiency today," he said.

Dr Tarisa told Bloomberg News in an interview that Thailand would ease restrictions on foreign ownership of local banks and may offer new banking licenses to attract overseas investment.

[Lourens]

Here we go again:

The Baht is steadily climbing again at just under 36 to the Dollar. Are we in for a big bonus again?

[attachment deleted by admin]

[Admin]

Here we go again:

The Baht is steadily climbing again at just under 36 to the Dollar. Are we in for a big bonus again?

Thats right,and here some news from the Bangkok post:

Thai Baht to continue depreciating:
Bangkok Post: 27 Feb 2009
Baht to continue depreciating
The baht is likely to continue depreciating for a time, and this would benefit exporters, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said on Friday.

However the minister warned that the current account balance needed close monitoring over the long term as imports had shrunk more than exports.

Mr Korn said once the economy gains stability during the latter part of this year imports and exportation should increase, resulting in a boon to the economy.

The Bangkok Bank reports the baht started trade at 36.06/08 baht/US dollar on Friday morning, depreciating from the previous day's market closing price of 35.95/98 baht/dollar.

[Khun Tony]

Hey Lourens,

You must be American because the aussie dollar is only getting about 25 to the $1.  Makes you want to be a European, but then you think if you can't be in the LOS, you'de rather be in Aus.

[Lourens]

I'm South African actually but was getting paid in US$. Right now I'm in Buriram about to start a job in Bangkok next week to be paid in the mighty Bath!!

[Khun Tony]

Hi Lourens,

50 / 50 guess and I always manage to guess it wrong.  Just my luck if you can call it that.  What do you do that enabes you to work in Thailand.   I have a mate that manages to spend 80% of his time in Asia with a lot of time spent in Bangkok.  I'm unfortuately into state taxes so there isn't much scope for me in Thailand.  So unless I win Lotto, it will be 4 to 8 years before I can retire to Thailand.

[Lourens]

I'm into medical technology with a very specific speciality needed by a university to do research. I got lucky I guess. I undersand that it is difficult to get a job in Thailand. I've been looking for a long time by subscribing to a website called JobsDb.com. They take your information and then send you available positions accordingly. The site is run by the Bangkok Post newspaper. You might want to give it a try. Good luck.